Simulation-based inference for AGN jet population modelling: Towards more robust comparisons of black hole jet speeds

Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society Oxford University Press (OUP) (2026) stag1515

Authors:

Clara Lilje, James H Matthews, Rob Fender

Abstract:

Abstract We present the most complete modelling of the MOJAVE 1.5 Jansky Quarter Century active galactic nuclei (AGN) jet population, using likelihood-free simulation-based inference. Due to the complex impact of a flux-limit on observed AGN data sets, careful modelling of the parent population is required. In particular, when observing and fitting to multiple data distributions likelihoods become non-intuitive. Parameter degeneracies further complicate the problem and make it suitable for likelihood-free, simulation-based inference. This method relies on a normalising flow learning the likelihood surface or posteriors directly. We extensively validate the flow to show that previous parameter estimates for the AGN jet speed distributions underestimated parameter errors significantly and do not capture the non-gaussianity of the parameter posteriors. The new results enable a better statistical comparison to other AGN population studies, but also a more accurate comparison of supermassive black hole jets with their lower mass counterparts, X-ray binaries (XRB). We find that the AGN follow a Lorentz factor distribution of the shape N(Γ)�Γb with $b= -1.32_{-0.19}^{+0.20}$. This slope is consistent with the XRB Lorentz factor distribution at 2σ. Simulation-based inference as a method is generally well-suited to many astrophysical problems, and this paper shows the convenient applicability of this methodology to parent population studies of jetted AGN with multiple observables specifically.

Vacuum polarization and cyclotron resonance effects on radiative transfer and plasma deceleration in subcritical X-ray pulsars

Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society Oxford University Press (OUP) (2026) stag1517

Authors:

Ivan D Markozov, Alexander Y Potekhin, Alexander D Kaminker, Alexander A Mushtukov

Abstract:

Abstract We investigate the spectrum and polarization of radiation emerging from a subcritical X-ray pulsar using self-consistent radiation-hydrodynamic simulations of an accretion channel in a strong magnetic field. The polarized radiative transfer in the channel above the hot spot is simulated for the two normal modes, taking into account resonant Compton scattering in a strongly magnetized plasma and the effects of vacuum polarization. We show that the deceleration of the accreting matter in the subcritical regime is mainly governed by resonant scattering. Our simulations provide the velocity profiles of the plasma flow and demonstrate that vacuum polarization dominates over plasma birefringence, enhancing both the cyclotron spectral feature and the radiative deceleration of the plasma. We also find that the energy of the cyclotron feature increases with accretion luminosity, indicating a positive correlation consistent with previous observational results and theoretical interpretation.

Peak 'Nebular' Emission and Early Flux Excesses in Ca-strong Supernovae

ArXiv 2608.0989 (2026)

Authors:

C-G Touchard-Paxton, K Maguire, C Frohmaier, WV Jacobson-Galán, M Pursiainen, C Angus, J Sollerman, A Polin, JH Terwel, R Seth, C O'Donnell, SJ Smartt, S Srivastav, A Bochenek, T de Boer, KK Das, C Fremling, AC Gordon, MJ Graham, ME Huber, C-C Lin, C Liu, FJ Masci, P Minguez, GSH Paek, J Purdum, B Rusholme, K Smith, R Smith, R Wainscoat

Properties of Black Hole Mergers in Disks of Active Galactic Nuclei

The Astrophysical Journal American Astronomical Society 1007:1 (2026) 67

Authors:

Hiromichi Tagawa, Zoltán Haiman, Bence Kocsis

Abstract:

Ground-based gravitational-wave (GW) observatories have detected approximately 200 binary black hole (BH) mergers. The astrophysical origin of these events is debated, with evidence suggesting that at least a subset originated from dynamic environments characterized by frequent close encounters. Accretion disks in active galactic nuclei (AGNs) are of particular interest, as certain observed features could be more readily produced within such environments. In this paper, we investigate the expected properties of mergers in these environments, and their dependence on various parameters, using 1D N-body simulations combined with a comprehensive semianalytical model. In our fiducial model, the distributions of masses (m1 and m2) and mass ratios (q ≡ m2/m1 ≤ 1) are similar to those observed. However, they depend strongly on the lifetime and density of the AGN disk and on the number and accretion efficiency of BHs, with higher masses predicted as these quantities increase. The most massive mergers, such as GW231123, can be produced either by efficient gas accretion or by hierarchical mergers among ≥3 generations of BHs. The observed negative correlation between q and the average effective spin (χeff), along with the positive correlation between χeff and the chirp mass (Mchirp), can be explained by a combination of efficient gas accretion, which promotes spin alignment, and hierarchical mergers, which produce high-∣χeff∣ and low-q binaries. Hierarchical mergers can also explain the negative correlation between q and the dispersion of χeff, as well as the positive correlation between ∣χeff∣and Mchirp. We present a comprehensive study on how the expected distribution of each of these quantities depends on model parameters and assumptions, which will aid the interpretation of observed GW population properties.

Simulation-based inference for AGN jet population modelling: Towards more robust comparisons of black hole jet speeds

(2026)

Authors:

Clara Lilje, James H Matthews, Rob Fender