Predictability of weather and climate

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Anthropogenic influence on the 2018 summer warm spell in Europe: the impact of different spatio-temporal scales

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society American Meteorological Society 101:S1 (2020) S41-S46

Authors:

Nicholas Leach, S Li, S Sparrow, GJ Van Oldenborgh, FC Lott, A Weisheimer, Allen

Abstract:

We demonstrate that, in attribution studies, events defined over longer time scales generally produce higher probability ratios due to lower interannual variability, reconciling seemingly inconsistent attribution results of Europe’s 2018 summer heatwaves in reported studies.

Evaluation of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation in global climate models for the SPARC QBO‐initiative

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Wiley (2020) qj.3765

Authors:

AC Bushell, JA Anstey, N Butchart, Y Kawatani, SM Osprey, JH Richter, F Serva, P Braesicke, C Cagnazzo, C‐C Chen, H‐Y Chun, RR Garcia, LJ Gray, K Hamilton, T Kerzenmacher, Y‐H Kim, F Lott, C McLandress, H Naoe, J Scinocca, AK Smith, TN Stockdale, S Versick, S Watanabe, K Yoshida, S Yukimoto

Beyond skill scores: exploring sub-seasonal forecast value through a case study of French month-ahead energy prediction

(2020)

Authors:

Joshua Dorrington, Isla Finney, Tim Palmer, Antje Weisheimer

Response of the quasi‐biennial oscillation to a warming climate in global climate models

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Wiley (2020) qj.3749

Authors:

Jadwiga H Richter, Neal Butchart, Yoshio Kawatani, Andrew C Bushell, Laura Holt, Federico Serva, James Anstey, Isla R Simpson, Scott Osprey, Kevin Hamilton, Peter Braesicke, Chiara Cagnazzo, Chih‐Chieh Chen, Rolando R Garcia, Lesley J Gray, Tobias Kerzenmacher, Francois Lott, Charles McLandress, Hiroaki Naoe, John Scinocca, Timothy N Stockdale, Stefan Versick, Shingo Watanabe, Kohei Yoshida, Seiji Yukimoto

Extreme precipitation events over Saudi Arabia during the wet season and their associated teleconnections

Atmospheric Research Elsevier 231 (2020) 104655

Authors:

Rana Muhammad Atif, Mansour Almazroui, Sajjad Saeed, Muhammad Adnan Abid, M Nazrul Islam, Muhammad Ismail