Predictability of weather and climate

Research group

Research theme

Sub department

About

Related research groups

Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

Chapter in Atmospheric Oscillations: Sources of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Variability and Predictability, (2024) 253-275

Authors:

Y Wang, J Rao, Z Ju, SM Osprey

Abstract:

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is one of the most cyclic phenomena in the atmosphere except for the annular and diurnal cycles, which provide the predictability source for subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts on the globe. The QBO is generated by the interaction between the background circulation and the equatorial waves, which cover a wide spectrum consisting of those that are eastward-and westward-propagating. The QBO can affect the climate in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres through at least three dynamic pathways, including the stratospheric polar vortex pathway, the subtropical downward-arching zonal wind pathway, and the tropical convection pathway. The impact of the QBO on the extratropics is projected to strengthen in future scenario experiments, although the maximum QBO wind magnitude gradually decreased in recent decades. As a newly emerging feature, the QBO disruption during the westerly phase is mainly caused by the extremely active Rossby waves from the extratropics. The QBO disruptions are likely to increase in a warmer climate background.

Energy‐meteorology education workshop at the International Conference on Energy and Meteorology

Weather Wiley 79:1 (2024) 34-35

Authors:

Matthew Wright, Juan A Añel, Hannah Mallinson

Multi-decadal skill variability in predicting the spatial patterns of ENSO events

(2024)

Authors:

Matthew Wright, Antje Weisheimer, Tim Woollings

Postprocessing East African rainfall forecasts using a generative machine learning model

(2024)

Authors:

Bobby Antonio, Andrew McRae, David MacLeod, Fenwick Cooper, John Marsham, Laurence Aitchison, Tim Palmer, Peter Watson

Decadal oscillation provides skillful multiyear predictions of Antarctic sea ice

Nature Communications Nature Research 14:1 (2023) 8286

Authors:

Yusen Liu, Cheng Sun, Jianping Li, Fred Kucharski, Emanuele Di Lorenzo, Muhammad Adnan Abid, Xichen Li

Abstract:

Over the satellite era, Antarctic sea ice exhibited an overall long-term increasing trend, contrary to the Arctic reduction under global warming. However, the drastic decline of Antarctic sea ice in 2014-2018 raises questions about its interannual and decadal-scale variabilities, which are poorly understood and predicted. Here, we identify an Antarctic sea ice decadal oscillation, exhibiting a quasi-period of 8-16 years, that is anticorrelated with the Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation (r = -0.90). By combining observations, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project historical simulations, and pacemaker climate model experiments, we find evidence that the synchrony between the sea ice decadal oscillation and Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation is linked to atmospheric poleward-propagating Rossby wave trains excited by heating in the central tropical Pacific. These waves weaken the Amundsen Sea Low, melting sea ice due to enhanced shortwave radiation and warm advection. A Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation-based regression model shows that this tropical-polar teleconnection carries multi-year predictability.