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Abstract:

AbstractStatistical models have been developed for predicting the behavior of the coupled high‐latitude ionosphere‐thermosphere system. The modeled parameters were the F‐layer peak electron density, plasma structuring, ion temperature, neutral temperature, and the difference between these temperatures, which is a key term in the Joule heating equation. Ionospheric measurements from the European Incoherent Scatter Svalbard Radar and neutral atmosphere measurements from the colocated University College London Fabry‐Perot Interferometers have been made across a solar cycle. These data were all acquired during nighttime conditions as the observations with the Fabry‐Perot Interferometers are restricted to such times. Various geophysical proxies were tested to represent the processes that influence the modeled parameters. The dominant geophysical proxy for each modeled parameter was then determined. Multivariate models were also developed showing the combinations of parameters that best explained the observed variability. A comparison with climatology showed that the models give an improvement in every case with skill scores based on the mean square error of up to 0.88.

Abstract:

We report on late time radio and X-ray observations of the tidal disruption event candidate ASASSN-14li, covering the first 1000 days of the decay phase. For the first $\sim200$ days the radio and X-ray emission fade in concert. This phase is better fit by an exponential decay at X-ray wavelengths, while the radio emission is well described by either an exponential or the canonical $t^{-5/3}$ decay assumed for tidal disruption events. The correlation between radio and X-ray emission during this period can be fit as $L_{R}\propto L_{X}^{1.9\pm0.2}$. After 400 days the radio emission at $15.5\,\textrm{GHz}$ has reached a plateau level of $244\pm8\,\mu\textrm{Jy}$ which it maintains for at least the next 600 days, while the X-ray emission continues to fade exponentially. This steady level of radio emission is likely due to relic radio lobes from the weak AGN-like activity implied by historical radio observations. We note that while most existing models are based upon the evolution of ejecta which are decoupled from the central black hole, the radio : X-ray correlation during the declining phase is also consistent with core jet emission coupled to a radiatively efficient accretion flow.