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Abstract:

In the coming years, the Vera Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time (Rubin-LSST) and the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope’s (Roman) High Latitude Time Domain Survey (HLTDS) are expected to discover more than a million Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), several orders of magnitude more than current samples and with a tighter control on systematic uncertainties. One of the largest systematic uncertainties in cosmological analyses with SNe Ia is the accuracy of the spectrophotometric model for SNe Ia time series data, which depends on the photometric calibration of the surveys. To quantify the impact of this uncertainty, we analyze simulated Rubin-LSST and HLTDS data, perturb the photometric zero-points and filter mean wavelengths, and propagate these systematics to spectral model recovery, estimated distances, and dark energy Figure of Merit (FoM) based on the w0waCDM model. Zero-point shifts of 5 mmag and filter mean wavelength shifts of 5 Å lead to a ∼50% decrease in the FoM relative to a statistical-only case when calibration uncertainties are propagated only through light-curve fitting. The same calibration shifts applied only during model training produce a smaller ∼13% degradation. Contrary to previous analyses, calibration uncertainties in light-curve fitting dominate over those from model training. Their effect during light-curve fitting varies smoothly with redshift and is nearly degenerate with cosmology, preventing mitigation through self-calibration. Finally, we show that the FoM dependence on the size of the calibration uncertainties (in the range of expected sizes) is roughly linear.

Abstract:

ATLAS (Asteroid Terrestrial Last Alert System) is a time-domain survey using four telescopes, covering the entire sky. It has observed 8378 spectroscopically confirmed Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), with thousands of cosmology-grade light curves (to be released as TITAN DR1). To prepare this massive, low-redshift dataset for cosmology, we evaluate and cross-calibrate ATLAS forced photometry using tertiary stars from the DES (Dark Energy Survey) Y6 release. The 5000 deg2 DES footprint overlaps regions both in and out of the PS1 (Pan-STARRS DR1) footprint, allowing tests of the primary calibrator for the ATLAS Refcat2 catalog. Initial offsets are at the ∼40 mmag scale. To improve this, we determine Δ zero-point offsets for two cases: (1) pixel-to-pixel offsets within individual CCDs (reduced from ∼8 to ∼4 mmag rms) and (2) chip-to-chip offsets across the nine CCDs and filters (reduced from ∼17 to ∼3 mmag rms). We also identify the largest systematic uncertainty as a transmission-function color dependence, requiring shifts in the assumed ATLAS filters at the ∼30 mmag level if uncorrected. We validate our calibration using (a) CALSPEC standards, (b) an independent tertiary catalog, and (c) distance moduli of cross-matched SNe Ia, all showing improved consistency. Overall, we estimate combined calibration-related systematics at the ∼5–10 mmag level, supporting competitive cosmological constraints with the TITAN SN Ia dataset.

Abstract:

Type Ia supernovae are a cornerstone of modern cosmology, providing first evidence for cosmic acceleration and new tests of dark energy. Son et al. (S25) claim a strong redshift evolution in standardized supernova luminosities driven by supernova progenitor age, with dramatic cosmological implications: rapidly evolving dark energy, decelerating expansion, and a tension with CDM. We show that the underpinning evidence required for this conclusion – the supernova progenitor-age dependence, the redshift-dependent age difference, and their combined impact – is either negligible or relies on effects already corrected for in modern supernova analyses. First, the S25 analysis omits the standard host-galaxy stellar mass correction that captures known environmental dependencies that also correlate with stellar age. Applying this correction to the S25 sample, we find no dependence of standardized supernova brightness on host age. Independent data also show no significant difference at low-redshift in standardized brightness between star-forming galaxies and several Gyr older quiescent galaxies of the same stellar mass. Secondly, the S25 scenario predicts strong redshift evolution of the host-mass effect. Data from the Dark Energy Survey supernova survey measure evolution of , consistent with zero and altering the dark-energy equation-of-state measurement (w) by <0.01 if included. Thirdly, we demonstrate that the claimed Gyr progenitor age difference between nearby and distant supernovae is overstated by factors of three to five largely due to a conflation of host galaxy age with supernova progenitor age. We conclude that type Ia supernova cosmology remains robust for current measurements of dark energy.

Abstract:

We present improved cosmological constraints from a re-analysis of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) 5-year sample of Type Ia supernovae (DES-SN5YR). This re-analysis includes an improved photometric cross-calibration, recent white dwarf observations to cross-calibrate between DES and low-redshift surveys, retraining the salt3 light-curve model and fixing a numerical approximation in the host-galaxy colour law. Our fully recalibrated sample, which we call DES-Dovekie, comprises 1600 likely Type Ia SNe from DES and 200 low-redshift SNe from other surveys. With DES-Dovekie, we obtain in flat Lambda-cold dark matter (CDM) which changes by compared to DES-SN5YR. Combining DES-Dovekie with cosmic microwave background data from Planck, Atacama Cosmology Telescope, and South Pole Telescope and the DESI DR2 measurements in a flat CDM cosmology, we find and . Our results hold a significance of , reduced from for DES-SN5YR, to reject the null hypothesis that the data are compatible with the cosmological constant. This significance is equivalent to a Bayesian model preference odds of approximately 5:1 in favour of the flat CDM model. Using generally accepted thresholds for model preference, our updated data exhibits only a weak preference for evolving dark energy.

Abstract:

The Time Domain Extragalactic Survey (TiDES) conducted on the 4 m Multi-Object Spectroscopic Telescope will perform spectroscopic follow-up of extragalactic transients discovered in the era of the NSF-DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory. TiDES will conduct a 5 yr survey, covering >14, 000squaredegrees , and use around 250,000 fibre hours to address three main science goals: (i) spectroscopic observations of >30,000 live transients, (ii) comprehensive follow-up of >200,000 host galaxies to obtain redshift measurements, and (iii) repeat spectroscopic observations of active galactic nuclei to enable reverberation mapping studies. The live spectra from TiDES will be used to reveal the diversity and astrophysics of both normal and exotic supernovae across the luminosity-timescale plane. The extensive host-galaxy redshift campaign will allow exploitation of the larger sample of supernovae and improve photometric classification, providing the largest-ever sample of SNe Ia, capable of a sub-2% measurement of the equation-of-state of dark energy. Finally, the TiDES reverberation mapping experiment of 700–1000 AGN will complement the SN Ia sample and extend the Hubble diagram to z ∼ 2.5.