Probabilistic prediction of climate using multi-model ensembles: from basics to applications.
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 360:1463 (2005) 1991-1998
Abstract:
The development of multi-model ensembles for reliable predictions of inter-annual climate fluctuations and climate change, and their application to health, agronomy and water management, are discussed.Changing frequency of occurrence of extreme seasonal temperatures under global warming
Geophysical Research Letters 32:20 (2005) 1-5
Abstract:
Using a multi-model multi-scenario ensemble of integrations made for the forthcoming fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the frequency of occurrence of extreme seasonal temperatures at the end of the 21st Century is estimated. In this study an extreme temperature is defined as lying above the 95 percentile of the simulated temperature distribution for 20th Century climate. The model probability of extreme warm seasons is heterogeneous over the globe and rises to over 90% in large parts of the tropics. This would correspond to an average return period of such anomalous warm seasons of almost one year. The reliability of these results is assessed using the bounding box technique, previously used to quantify the reliability of seasonal climate forecasts. It is shown that the dramatic increase in extreme warm seasons arises from the combined effect of a shift and a broadening of the temperature distributions. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.A forecast quality assessment of an end-to-end probabilistic multi-model seasonal forecast system using a malaria model
TELLUS SERIES A-DYNAMIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY 57:3 (2005) 464-475
Influence of a stochastic parameterization on the frequency of occurrence of North Pacific weather regimes in the ECMWF model - art. no. L23811
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 32:23 (2005) ARTN L23811
More power needed to probe cloud systems
NATURE 434:7031 (2005) 271-271