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Abstract:

Abstract. This study uses an ensemble of climate model experiments coordinated by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi) to analyze the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the presence of either perpetual El Niño or La Niña sea surface temperatures during boreal winter. In addition to the prescribed El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions, the nine models internally generate QBOs, meaning each may influence the MJO. Objectives of our analyses are to assess the response of the MJO to strong idealized ENSO forcing and look for evidence of a QBO influence on the MJO in a multi-model context. The diagnostics used include wavenumber-frequency spectra of tropical convective and dynamical fields, measures of MJO lifetime, an evaluation of MJO diversity and visualization of MJO vertical structure, as well as an assessment of QBO morphology and the QBO's impact on tropical convection. Kelvin wave spectral power increases in the El Niño simulations whereas equatorial Rossby waves power is stronger in the La Niña simulations. All models simulate faster MJO propagation under El Niño conditions. This change in speed is corroborated by the MJO diversity analysis, which reveals that models better reproduce the observed “fast propagating” and “standing” MJO archetypes given perpetual El Niño and La Niña, respectively. Regardless of ENSO, QBO descent into the lower stratosphere is underestimated and we detect little QBO influence on tropical tropopause stability and MJO activity. With little influence from the QBO on the MJO activity in these runs, we can be confident that the aforementioned changes in the MJO indeed arise from the different ENSO boundary conditions.

Abstract:

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:p>Atmospheric flow underpins virtually all meteorological and climatological phenomena, yet extracting meaningful features from its dynamics remains a major scientific challenge due to its high dimensionality, multi-scale behaviour, and inherent nonlinearity. In this study, we investigate the potential of a network-based framework to reveal the relationships between distinct flow structures. Specifically, we apply three techniques, independent of any particular phenomenon or model, to explore patterns of coherence and information transfer, vortical interactions, and Lagrangian coherent structures. We assess their utility using a rotating shallow-water model of the stratospheric polar vortex, which reproduces key aspects of wintertime dynamics, including sudden stratospheric warming split events. Our results support three central claims. First, the transformation of fluid flow data into a network representation preserves essential dynamical information. Second, this representation enables a more accessible and structured analysis of the underlying dynamical structures. Third, multiple types of networks can be constructed from atmospheric flow data, each offering distinct yet complementary insights into the system’s collective behaviour. Together, these findings highlight the potential of network-based approaches as valuable tools in atmospheric research.</jats:p>

Abstract:

Abstract. This study investigates Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) teleconnections and their modulation by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using a multi-model ensemble from the Atmospheric Processes And their Role in Climate (APARC) QBO initiative (QBOi). Analyzing observed QBO–ENSO teleconnections is challenging because it is difficult to separate the respective influences of QBO and ENSO outside the QBO region due to aliasing in the historical record. To isolate these signals, simulations were conducted with annually repeating prescribed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) representing idealized El Niño and La Niña conditions (the QBOi EN and LN experiments, respectively), and results are compared with the QBOi control experiment (CTL) under ENSO-neutral conditions. The strength of the Holton-Tan relationship between the phase of the QBO and the strength of the polar vortex seen in observations is reproduced in fewer than three models in CTL and by one model in EN. In LN, three out of nine models reproduce the observed Holton–Tan relationship, but with less than half of the observed amplitude. In the Arctic winter climate, sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) occur more frequently in EN than in LN; however, unlike in observations, there is no discernible difference in SSW frequency between QBO westerly (QBO-W) and QBO easterly (QBO-E) phases. The Asia-Pacific subtropical jet (APJ) shifts significantly equatorward during QBO-W compared to QBO-E in observations, but this shift is not robust across models, regardless of ENSO phases. In the tropics, the sign and spatial pattern of the QBO precipitation response vary widely across models and experiments, indicating that any potential QBO signal is strongly modulated by the prevailing ENSO phases. Overall, the QBOi models exhibit unrealistically weak QBO wind amplitudes in the lower stratosphere, which may explain the weak polar vortex and APJ responses, as well as the weak precipitation signals in the tropics. In contrast, the QBO teleconnection with the Walker circulation during boreal summer and autumn shows consistent signals in both observations and most models. Specifically, the QBO-W phase is characterized by upper-level westerly and lower-level easterly anomalies over the Indian Ocean–Maritime Continent relative to QBO-E, although the amplitude and timing of these anomalies remain model-dependent. Notably, the influence of QBO phase on the Walker circulation appears insensitive to the ENSO phase.

Abstract:

Plain Language Summary: The Quasi‐biennial Oscillation (QBO) dominates the variability of the tropical atmosphere between 16 and 50 km above the surface. It manifests most strongly as downward propagating zonal wind variations exceeding 25 m/s with an average period of ∼ ${\sim} $ 28 months. Twice in the past 10 years the QBO regular phase evolution has been disrupted after 60 years of no disruptions, motivating our analysis of the role of greenhouse gases, aerosols, ozone, volcanic eruptions, and solar variability for historical changes in the QBO. We find prominent roles for four of these five external forcings, and specifically both rising greenhouse gases and volcanic eruptions help induce disruption events.

Abstract:

<jats:p>Abstract. The Atmospheric Processes And their Role in Climate (APARC) Quasi-Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi) has conducted new experiments to explore the modulation of the QBO by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This paper provides an overview of the experimental design and investigates the modulation of the QBO by ENSO using nine climate models used in QBOi. A key finding is a consistent lengthening of the QBO period during La Niña compared to El Niño across all models, aligning with observational evidence. Although several models simulate QBO periods that deviate from the observed mean of approximately 28 months, the relative difference between La Niña and El Niño remains interpretable within each model. The simulated QBO periods during La Niña tend to be longer than those during El Niño, although, in most models, the differences are small compared to that observed. However, the magnitude of this lengthening shows large inter-model differences. By contrast, even the sign of the ENSO effect on QBO amplitude varies among models. Models employing variable parameterized gravity wave sources generally exhibit greater sensitivity of the QBO amplitude to the presence of ENSO than those models using fixed sources. The models capture key observed ENSO-related characteristics, including a weaker Walker circulation and increased equatorial precipitation during El Niño compared to La Niña, as well as a characteristic response in zonal mean zonal wind and temperature. All models also simulate stronger equatorial tropical upwelling in El Niño compared to La Niña up to ∼ 10 hPa, consistent with ERA5 reanalysis. These modulations influence the propagation and filtering of gravity waves. Notably, models with variable parameterized gravity wave sources show stronger wave forcing during El Niño, potentially explaining the shorter QBO period modulation in these models. Further investigation into the complex interplay between ENSO, gravity waves, and the QBO can contribute to improved model formulations. </jats:p>