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Abstract:

We demonstrate that, in attribution studies, events defined over longer time scales generally produce higher probability ratios due to lower interannual variability, reconciling seemingly inconsistent attribution results of Europe’s 2018 summer heatwaves in reported studies.

Abstract:

This chapter of the 2020 Report of the FABLE Consortium Pathways to Sustainable Land-Use and Food Systems outlines how sustainable food and land-use systems can contribute to raising climate ambition, aligning climate mitigation and biodiversity protection policies, and achieving other sustainable development priorities in the UK. It presents three pathways for food and land-use systems for the period 2020-2050: Current Trends, Sustainable Medium Ambition, and Sustainable High Ambition (referred to as “Current Trends”, “Sustainable”, and “Sustainable +” in all figures throughout this chapter). These pathways examine the trade-offs between achieving the FABLE Targets under limited land availability and constraints to balance supply and demand at national and global levels. We developed these pathways in consultation with national stakeholders and experts, including from the Department for Food, Agriculture and Rural Affairs (Defra), the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS), the Department for International Trade (DIT), the Department for Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs in Northern Ireland (DAERA), the Scottish Government, the Welsh Government, the Committee on Climate Change, the Royal Society, the Royal Academy of Engineering, and UK Research and Innovation (UKRI), and modeled them with the FABLE Calculator (Mosnier, Penescu, Thomson, and Perez-Guzman, 2019). See Annex 1 for more details on the adaptation of the model to the national context.