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Abstract:

The stratospheric role in the European winter surface climate response to El Niño-Southern Oscillation sea surface temperature forcing is investigated using an intermediate general circulation model with a well-resolved stratosphere. Under El Niño conditions, both the modeled tropospheric and stratospheric mean-state circulation changes correspond well to the observed "canonical" responses of a late winter negative North Atlantic Oscillation and a strongly weakened polar vortex, respectively. The variability of the polar vortex is modulated by an increase in frequency of stratospheric sudden warming events throughout all winter months. The potential role of this stratospheric response in the tropical Pacific-European teleconnection is investigated by sensitivity experiments in which the mean state and variability of the stratosphere are degraded. As a result, the observed stratospheric response to El Niño is suppressed and the mean sea level pressure response fails to resemble the temporal and spatial evolution of the observations. The results suggest that the stratosphere plays an active role in the European response to El Niño. A saturation mechanism whereby for the strongest El Niño events tropospheric forcing dominates the European response is suggested. This is examined by means of a sensitivity test and it is shown that under large El Niño, forcing the European response is insensitive to stratospheric representation.

Abstract:

The k-means cluster technique is used to examine 43 yr of daily winter Northern Hemisphere (NH) polar stratospheric data from the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40). The results show that the NH winter stratosphere exists in two natural well-separated states. In total, 10% of the analyzed days exhibit a warm disturbed state that is typical of sudden stratospheric warming events. The remaining 90% of the days are in a state typical of a colder undisturbed vortex. These states are determined objectively, with no preconceived notion of the groups. The two stratospheric states are described and compared with alternative indicators of the polar winter flow, such as the northern annular mode. It is shown that the zonally averaged zonal winds in the polar upper stratosphere at ∼7 hPa can best distinguish between the two states, using a threshold value of ∼4 m s^-1, which is remarkably close to the standard WMO criterion for major warming events. The analysis also determines that there are no further divisions within the warm state, indicating that there is no well-designated threshold between major and minor warmings, nor between split and displaced vortex events. These different manifestations are simply members of a continuum of warming events. © 2009 American Meteorological Society.

Abstract:

This paper provides some insights on the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) modulated 11-year solar cycle (11-yr SC) signals in Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter temperature and zonal wind. Daily ERA-40 Reanalysis and ECMWF Operational data for the period of 1958-2006 were used to examine the seasonal evolution of the QBO-solar cycle relationship at various pressure levels up to the stratopause. The results show that the solar signals in the NH winter extratropics are indeed QBO-phase dependent, moving poleward and downward as winter progresses with a faster descent rate under westerly QBO than under easterly QBO. In the stratosphere, the signals are highly significant in late January to early March and have a life span of ~30-50 days. Under westerly QBO, the stratospheric solar signals clearly lead and connect to those in the troposphere in late March and early April where they have a life span of ~10 days. As the structure changes considerably from the upper stratosphere to the lower troposphere, the exact month when the maximum solar signals occur depends largely on the altitude chosen. For the low-latitude stratosphere, our analysis supports a vertical double-peaked structure of positive signature of the 11-yr SC in temperature, and demonstrates that this structure is further modulated by the QBO. These solar signals have a longer life span (~3-4 months) in comparison to those in the extratropics. The solar signals in the lower stratosphere are stronger in early winter but weaker in late winter, while the reverse holds in the upper stratosphere. © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society.

Abstract:

Significant differences in heating rates are found when two solar irradiance spectra are used in a line-by-line radiative transfer code. Compared with a spectrum of recent satellite data an older theoretical spectrum gives 20-40% more heating in the ozone Hartley band, important in the upper stratosphere. The spectra are implemented in a broadband radiation code to which some improvements are also made to the ozone absorption parameterization. A widely-used spectrum of ground-based data from 1960s gives somewhat lower heating rates. The effects of the changes in the spectrum, and the broad-band scheme, on the temperatures simulated by a middle atmosphere GCM are investigated. The model has previously shown a warm bias, compared with climatology, around the stratopause but this is significantly reduced when the former spectrum is substituted for the latter, and the new ozone parameterization incorporated. The change in spectrum accounts for two-thirds of the improvement. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.