Professor Roy Grainger: Publications

Known and unknown unknowns: the application of ensemble techniques to uncertainty estimation in satellite remote sensing data

Authors:

AC Povey, RG Grainger

Laboratory measurements of the optical properties of sea salt aerosol

Authors:

R Irshad, RG Grainger, DM Peters, RA McPheat, KM Smith, G Thomas

Major volcanic eruptions episodically disrupted the continuity of polar warming through aerosol forcing

npj Clean Air Springer Nature

Authors:

Roy Grainger, Basudev Swain, Scott Osprey, Rui Song, Marco Vountas

Abstract:

The polar regions are warming rapidly, exceeding the global average due to greenhouse gas emissionsfrom human activities. Using CMIP6 simulations, HadCRUT5 data, and MERRA-2 aerosol records, thisstudy shows that major 20th-century volcanic eruptions, Agung (1963), El Chicho´n (1982), and Pinatubo(1991) temporarily offset polar warming through sulfate-induced cooling. The Agung eruption suppressedArctic surface air temperature anomalies for approximately 4-5 years (1964–1968), El Chicho´n for asimilar duration (1983–1987), and Pinatubo for about 4-5 years (1992–1996), demonstrating a consistentmulti-year cooling response following each event.Without these eruptions, Arctic surface air temperatureanomalies would have increased by up to 0.5 °C, whereas volcanic activity caused short-term coolingranging from –0.07 °C to –0.4 °C. Arctic minimum temperatures (Tmin) are rising faster than maximumtemperatures (Tmax), indicating asymmetric warming. In contrast, Antarctic responses were weaker,moderated by oceanic and atmospheric dynamics. Collectively, these eruptions produced episodic multi-year cooling that temporarily interrupted the ongoing Arctic warming trajectory, with warming resumingas volcanic aerosol forcing diminished. Spatial patterns reveal pronounced warming in the central Arctic,Greenland, and Siberia in the absence of volcanic forcing, highlighting the role of eruptions in modulating polar warming and providing insights relevant to future geoengineering considerations.

New insights into the relationship between mass eruption rate and volcanic column height based on the IVESPA dataset

Authors:

Thomas Jacques Aubry, Samantha L Engwell, Costanza Bonadonna, Larry Garver Mastin, Guillaume Carazzo, Alexa Van Eaton, David Jessop, Roy Gordon Grainger, Simona Scollo, Isabelle Alice Taylor, Mark Jellinek, Anja Schmidt, Sébastien Biass, Mathieu Gouhier

ORAC ice particle retrievals for the 15 January 2022 eruption of Hunga volcano, Kingdom of Tonga

University of Oxford

Authors:

Andrew Prata, roy Grainger, isabelle Taylor, Alyn Lambert

Abstract:

This set of netcdf files provides ice particle retrievals produced by applying the Optimal Retrieval of Aerosol and Cloud (ORAC) algorithm to the Advanced Himawari Imager aboard the Himawari-8 satellite. These retrievals accompany the paper "Transient ice ring observed during the 15 January 2022 eruption of Hunga volcano" by Prata et al. accepted for publication in the journal Communications Earth & Environment.

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