Combining Observations, Forecasts and Projections into Seamless Climate Information: Recent Advances and Insights in User Applications
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2026)
Abstract:
Impact of ocean in-situ observations on ECMWF sub-seasonal forecasts
Frontiers in Marine Science Frontiers Media 11 (2024) 1396491
Abstract:
We assess for the first time the impact of in-situ ocean observations on European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) sub-seasonal forecasts of both ocean and atmospheric conditions. A series of coupled reforecasts have been conducted for the period 1993-2015, in which different sets of ocean observations were withdrawn in the production of the ocean initial conditions. Removal of all ocean in-situ observations in the initial conditions leads to significant degradation in the forecasts of ocean surface and subsurface mean state at lead times from week 1 to week 4. The negative impact is predominantly caused by the removal of the Argo observing system in recent decades. Changes in the mean state of atmospheric variables are comparatively small but significant in the forecasts of lower and upper atmospheric circulation over large regions. Our results highlight the value of continuous, real-time in-situ observations of the surface and subsurface ocean for coupled forecasts in the sub-seasonal range.Seasonal Arctic sea ice forecasting with probabilistic deep learning
Nature Communications Springer Nature 12:1 (2021) 5124
Detection and attribution of human influence on regional precipitation
Nature Climate Change Springer Nature 6:7 (2016) 669-675
Combining Observations, Forecasts and Projections into Seamless Climate Information: Recent Advances and Insights in User Applications
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2026)